Rain began to fall early Sunday afternoon in most parts of Polk County. Based on weather projections, the rain will be here to stay for several days, bringing with it a chance for flash floods, strong winds and isolated thunderstorms.

The high winds, combined with saturated soil, may increase the likelihood of falling trees, so be cautious.

Here's the latest from the NOAA:

A cold front will approach the area Sunday evening, spreading rain across the state Sunday night and Monday. Another surface low will develop in the Southern Plains late Tuesday, bringing additional rainfall to the state on Wednesday. This pattern should finally clear out sometime on Thursday, but not before bringing widespread heavy rainfall to the area. There is still some uncertainty with the exact amounts as well as where the heaviest rain will fall, but all guidance is pointing widespread amounts of over 2 to 4 inches to the area.



Impacts:

1. Widespread Heavy Rain and Flooding - As mentioned above, a series of upper level disturbances is expected to move across the area beginning late Sunday. The first round of heavy rain will move into north Georgia Sunday night, spreading south but diminishing through the day Monday. Another wave may impact mainly central Georgia Monday evening into early Tuesday, with the final round of heavy rain pushing across north Georgia Tuesday night and central Georgia through Wednesday. While guidance has not yet pinpointed the location that will get the most precipitation, confidence is increasing in a widespread heavy rainfall event with over 2-4" across the area. It is not out of the question that isolated locations could see 4 to 5".

This amount of rain, especially falling in heavy bursts associated with the aforementioned waves (as opposed to a prolonged light rainfall event), will lead to widespread minor flooding, isolated moderate flooding, and possibly some flash flooding across the area. Many of the fast-responding basins will likely go into flood, including but not limited to Lookout Creek near New England, Big Creek near Alpharetta and Cumming, and Suwanee Creek in Suwanee. While widespread heavy rain is expected across the entire area, the more significant flooding will likely be across north Georgia where more rain has fallen recently.



2. Strong Winds - A strong low level jet with wind speeds between 45-55kt is expected across the area through the event, generally ranging from around 1500-2500ft above the ground. With the heavy rain, these winds may be transported to the surface. Once the heavy rain begins, saturated soils will allow trees to fall more easily than they otherwise might.



3. Isolated Thunderstorms - Weak instability across the area will hinder thunderstorm development, but an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, especially across central Georgia Tuesday night into Wednesday. While severe weather is not specifically expected with thunderstorms, again the strong winds aloft associated with the low level jet will likely be able to mix down to the surface, possibly leading to downed trees.